For decades, Miami-Dade County was a pillar of the Democratic Party’s success in Florida. It was the county where liberal candidates padded their margins with support from urban voters, younger residents, and immigrant families. 

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by 30 points. Joe Biden narrowed that gap in 2020, but still came out ahead by 7 points. Just four years later, Donald Trump flipped the county entirely—and became the first Republican to carry it since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

The question now is: Is Miami still liberal?

It doesn’t look like it. The numbers—and the momentum—say Miami is swinging red, and fast.

Is Miami liberal or conservative? A county in political transition

The shift didn’t happen overnight, but it's been accelerating. In just four years, Democrats’ once-commanding lead in registered voters dropped dramatically. They had a 200,000+ voter advantage in 2020. By 2024, that lead had fallen to around 45,000. Some projections even suggest Republicans could outnumber Democrats in the county by the end of the year.

This isn’t just registration data—it’s showing up in results. In 2024, Trump won over 55% of the vote in Miami-Dade. And it wasn’t just the presidential race. Republicans swept nearly every major countywide office, including sheriff, tax collector, and elections supervisor.

Thousands of former Democrats and independents are making their switch official. In early 2024 alone, over 5,000 voters in the county changed their affiliation to Republican.

Why the shift? A matter of values

These are the key factors driving the shift toward conservative candidates in Miami:

Hispanic voters are gaining ground

Miami-Dade is about 69% Hispanic. That includes Cuban Americans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans—many of whom know firsthand what socialism looks like. When Democrats embrace far-left talking points, those voters take notice.

Republicans have capitalized on that connection, especially by speaking directly to voters in Spanish-language media and focusing on issues like safety, personal responsibility, and freedom.

Immigration and the economy come first

In every recent poll and voter focus group, two issues come up over and over again: Immigration and the economy. Voters say they trust Trump to handle both. They see the border crisis getting worse, and they’re living through higher prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, and their utility bills.

Republican messaging has zeroed in on those pain points. Meanwhile, Democrats have prioritized identity politics, climate change, and gender ideology. That might land well in San Francisco, but in Miami-Dade, it’s backfiring.

Common sense over party politics

Many Miami voters are fed up with what they see as the Democratic Party’s drift into the fringe. From cancel culture to calls for prison reform that put criminals back on the street, there’s a growing sense that liberal policies just don’t align with local values anymore.

In a county where many residents work hard to build small businesses and raise families, policies that punish work and reward chaos don’t fly. Cultural conservatism runs deep, and that includes opposition to radical gender politics and support for parental rights in schools.

What’s next for Miami?

Despite the red shift, Miami isn’t 100% conservative—yet. The county still has a Democrat mayor, and pockets like Miami Beach and Coral Gables lean blue. But even that may not last. Republicans are recruiting candidates, winning local seats, and—most importantly—winning trust.

This shift didn’t come from a top-down campaign. It came from conversations at barbershops, churches, and family tables. It came from voters asking themselves, “Who really understands what we’re going through?”

The answer more and more are giving: The Republican Party.

Miami is Turning Conservative

So, is Miami liberal or conservative? It used to be a sure win for the Democrats. Today, it's a battleground—and the right side is gaining ground. And if the trend continues, Miami-Dade could be a model for how conservatives win in places they were once written off.